An aerial view of the lower north of Thailand in mid-September 2011
Consul General’s Corner
October 16, 2011
Psychology of a Disaster
There are no disasters, only opportunities. And, indeed, opportunities for fresh disasters. – London Mayor Boris Johnson
When the flooding hit Chiang Mai, it came as a surprise. I was discussing with a Thai friend just the day before that Chiang Mai wasn't on the government’s list of flood-affected provinces. We awoke on September 28, however, to reports of mudslides in Mae Taeng. We were soon following the Hydrology Department's hourly updates along with everyone else. People didn't panic; we managed the situation as it developed.
In Bangkok, the threat of flooding has been an entirely different experience. Since the first week of October, we've been hearing news reports of a wall of water headed for the capital and different assessments of whether the Thai government is prepared. Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra said last week that her government was overwhelmed by the flooding. News reports initially quoted her as declaring a national flood holiday to allow people to stay home and manage the water. At the same time, Bangkok Governor MR Sukhumbhand Paribatra rushed to assure people that flood control measures were in place and the capital would be spared.
Such conflicting messages made it hard for people to know how to react. When I visited Bangkok on October 11, my colleagues at the U.S. Embassy told me the flood crisis was dominating their days, as well as those of the Thai government. On October 10, the Ambassador visited the National Flood Relief Center and met with the Minister of Transport, offering U.S. assistance with transporting relief material to flood-struck villages. U.S. Marines arrived over the weekend to do so. The U.S. government donated $100,000 to assist Thailand. The Chinese and Japanese governments also stepped in to help. Clearly, the country was affected; but would Bangkok be?
Our Bangkok-based colleagues told us that stores had run out of basic necessities such as toilet paper, bread and batteries as people hoarded goods. The Embassy issued a warden message to all U.S. citizens in the flood zone, urging them to ensure an adequate supply of food, water, candles, flashlights, and first aid kits.
The situation reminded me of living in Hong Kong in 2003, during the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). As the Hong Kong government struggled to put into place a clear communication strategy, rumors ran amok. We heard that Hong Kong would become a closed port at the end of April, causing a panic rush to buy basic supplies and food. For an entire day, people were convinced we'd be sealed off from the world. Soon there was no bottled water or instant noodles to be had. But Hong Kong was never in danger of being closed off, and SARS was contained over the course of the next month. Why did people panic and overreact?
In New York City last August, Mayor Michael Bloomberg had the opposite problem. Jaded New Yorkers weren't taking his evacuation warning for Hurricane Irene seriously. He needed to issue a mandatory evacuation notice to persuade some New Yorkers to vacate their exposed apartments on the waterfront as the storm approached.
How does a government adequately communicate risk without alarming them unnecessarily? Following my experience during SARS, I was very interested in the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s basic principles for crisis and emergency risk communication. In addition to designating a single, trusted source of information that is regularly updated (such as the Hydrology Department’s hourly readings of the Ping River during Chiang Mai’s flooding), U.S. CDC says it’s important to communicate information that will allow people to make their own decisions. Everyone will absorb, process and act on information differently, but clear guidelines and recommendations help.
To manage communication during a crisis, U.S. CDC recommends three basic guidelines: Be first with the information, be right, and be credible. In an interview in the October 16 issue of The Nation newspaper, National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission (NBTC) member Supinya Klangnarong was quoted as saying the Thai government needed to provide centralized and reliable flood updates on a regular basis to avoid confusion and panic.
As I write this, Ayutthaya was shocked that five industrial estates– in addition to the ancient heritage sites -- have been flooded. Over 10,000 businesses and 350,000 workers were affected. Reports of flooding have not been overstated. But Bangkok has been spared the worst of the water. Agriculture and Cooperatives Minister Theera Wongsamut assured the city that much of the northern waters have run off into the sea, and water peaked on Saturday at just under 2.3 meters, within the 2.5-metre height of the flood barrier.
The challenge going forward will be to communicate reasonable risk to all.
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